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According to the study, the probability of asteroid beno hitting the earth in 279 years is 10000

On August 16, NASA said that the probability of asteroid Bennu hitting the earth was 1 in 1750, or 0.06%, but "people don't have to worry too much." < p > the data collected by the NASA asteroid exploration mission Osiris Rex show that the asteroid Bennu with a diameter of 518 meters will pass the earth at a close range in the 22nd century, and the probability of collision with the earth is 0.06% The Osiris Rex asteroid probe spent more than two years orbiting beno and sampling the asteroid surface. Researchers use the information collected by the probe to explore the flight path of future asteroids in the solar system. They found that the 518 meter boulder actually has a slightly higher probability of hitting the earth in the future than previously thought, but people have nothing to worry about < p > David farnochia of NASA's near earth object Research Center said: "I'm not more worried about Benu than before."“ The possibility of affecting (the earth) is still very small. " < p > researchers believe that between now and 2300, the probability of Bennu hitting the earth is about 1 in 1750, or 0.06%. But the researchers also ruled out any possibility of beno hitting the earth between now and 2135. According to the research results, in September 2135, the distance between Benu and the earth will be closer than that between the earth and the moon. NASA said, "the asteroid Bennu, the destination of our Osiris Rex mission, is classified as a dangerous near Earth Asteroid. The data obtained by the probe from beno has significantly revised the beno orbit model in 2135. " < p > fanochia explained that according to the orbit model, beno did not have the risk of collision when passing through the earth at a short distance, but there are still some major uncertainties. For example, researchers do not know how gravity will change Benu's path, which may make impact more likely < p > the research team uses the data collected by the Osiris Rex mission to study everything, including the possible impact of the probe itself on the operation of asteroids and the small force of solar heat on small bodies, which is called the yakovsky effect, that is, the phenomenon that small bodies obtain kinetic energy due to anisotropic thermal radiation < p > Steve Chesley, senior research scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, explained: "the impact of this effect on Benu is equivalent to the weight of three grapes constantly acting on the asteroid."“ Yes, this force is small, but it is of great significance in determining the probability of Bennu's impact on the earth in the coming decades and centuries. " < p > this new study will undoubtedly ease people's anxiety about asteroid Bennu. Researchers can now confidently say that there was nothing to worry about before 2135 and nothing to worry about before 2300. However, in the coming years, researchers will continue to pay close attention to the operation path of Bennu during September 2182 < p > specifically, September 24, 2182 is the most important day in Bennu's operation, because the probability of Bennu hitting the earth on that day is 0.04%. Of course, if we look at this issue from another perspective, Bennu has a 99.96% chance that he will not hit the earth that day < p > "we should not worry too much about it," fanochia reiterated“ We have time to continue tracking the asteroid. "( Chen Chen) < / P > < p >


2023-03-22 10:04:41

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