Share with friends and circle of friends with wechat scan QR code < / P > < p > < / P > < p > Author: elegant editor: Sheng Yuan < / P > < p > "if you want to achieve the goal of net zero emission, you must eliminate the greenhouse gas emissions caused by transportation." In his new book "climate economy and the future of mankind", which advocates "zero emission", Bill Gates outlines the future of "zero carbon" in the field of transportation, that is, using electricity to drive all the vehicles we can drive, and using cheap alternative fuels to power other vehicles. < / P > < p > but it's not easy to electrify vehicles. Bill Gates tells a story like this: "not long ago, my friend Warren Buffett and I talked about the possibility of decarbonizing airplanes. Warren asked, why can't we use batteries to power a jumbo jet When I told him the amazing fact that you need 36 times the weight of jet fuel to get the same energy, he immediately understood. The more power you need, the heavier the plane will be. In the end, it may be too heavy to take off at all. Warren nodded with a smile and said "ah." < / P > < p > transportation means such as aircraft, cars, trucks and ships are one of the important sources of greenhouse gas emissions. According to Bill Gates, transportation accounts for 16% of the world's total emissions, ranking first in the United States, with passenger car emissions accounting for nearly 50% of the world's total. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is expected to continue to grow at a level of carbon dioxide emissions, even if the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on travel and trade is considered, according to the OECD. This trend will continue to continue at least until 2050. < / P > < p > "(this) is quite difficult. But it's not impossible. " Bill Gates said, "the cost of owning electric passenger cars will soon drop to a lower level than that of fuel vehicles, which is good news. Alternative energy is still expensive, which is not good news. We need to bring down their prices through innovative means. "

the" green premium "of electric vehicles < / a > < / b > < / P > < p > Bill Gates believes that since the cost of batteries has decreased by 87% since 2010, the government has also introduced a number of tax relief and subsidy policies to promote the development of zero emission vehicles_ blank" href=" https://news.163.com/news/search?keyword=%E7%94%B5%E5%8A%A8%E8%BD%A6 "> the price gap between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles has narrowed significantly in recent years. However, electric vehicles still maintain a certain degree of "green premium". < / P > < p > "green premium" is a core concept proposed by Bill Gates in his new book, that is, using green and clean energy costs more. Bill Gates, for example, said that if Chevrolet's fuel car malibao and pure electric car bolt EV drive 19300 kilometers a year, the latter will drive 1200 US dollars (about 7865 yuan) more than the former, which is the "green premium". According to the gap between electricity price and oil price, the "green premium" of various countries is not the same. In some areas of Europe where the oil price is too high, the "green premium" of electric vehicles has already dropped to 0. < / P > < p > Tony Harper, director of Faraday battery challenge project, UK research and innovation fund, said in an interview with China first finance and economics that in view of the tightening requirements on the follow-up treatment of exhaust emissions, it will increase certain complexity and lead to the increasing cost of internal combustion vehicles year by year. On the other hand, with the increase of fixed cost and the development of technology, the cost of electric vehicles is also decreasing. "The intersection between the costs of diesel vehicles and electric vehicles should be seen in the next five years. Moreover, although the purchase cost of electric vehicles is relatively high, the overall use cost and application cost are relatively low due to the very low electricity price in the UK. " Said Harper. < / P > < p > however, Bill Gates said that even by 2030, electric vehicles still have some disadvantages compared with fuel vehicles. "First of all, the price of gasoline has changed a lot. Only when the oil price is higher than a certain level, the electric car is a cheaper choice In terms of current battery prices, electric car owners will save money only when the oil price exceeds $3 per gallon. " "Second, it usually takes an hour or more for an electric car to fully charge, but it doesn't take more than five minutes to top up a fuel car," he wrote < / P > < p > in addition, it takes time to get all the fuel vehicles off the road. On average, it takes at least 13 years for a car to get off the assembly line and enter the scrap factory. This means that if we want to electrify all passenger cars in the United States by 2050, the proportion of electric vehicle sales in the next 15 years needs to be close to 100% of the total car sales, but in fact, the current figure is less than 2%. < / P > < p > in Europe, the situation is not very optimistic. Al Bedwell, an analyst at LMC automotive, an automotive consulting firm, believes that the EU and the UK are canceling sales of some highly polluting models. However, in the absence of consumer demand, the vigorous promotion of electric vehicles may not bear fruit in a short time. "You can't suddenly create an ideal environment where you can sell enough electric cars." Bedwell said. < / P > < p > and for heavy vehicles such as coaches, trucks and airplanes, electrification is more difficult. Because the heavier the car body is, the shorter the driving range is, and the more difficult it is to use electricity as a power source. < / P > < p > < b > expert: under the guidance of the government, technology and market momentum are indispensable < / b > < / P > < p > Bill Gates said that another way to achieve "zero emissions" is to use alternative liquid fuels. But his personal experience has proved that "it is extremely difficult to achieve technological breakthroughs in this area.". < / P > < p > "a few years ago, I learned that an American company had developed a proprietary manufacturing process that could convert biomass such as trees into fuel." "After some due diligence, I invested $50 million in the company, but the manufacturing process didn't work as it should - the technical challenges meant that the factory couldn't go into production on a large scale in an economic way and had to close down in the end," he said < / P > < p > Bill Gates said that due to the lack of research and development funds and the large-scale application of fuel, the use of alternative gasoline has become a very expensive choice. At present, the retail price of gasoline in the United States is $2.43/gal, but the price of advanced biofuels under the "zero carbon" option is $5 / gal, which is 106% higher.

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2023-03-22 10:04:31