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Share with friends and circle of friends by wechat scanning QR code < / P > < p > < p > according to foreign media reports, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos may have great confidence in the safety of his blue origin company's spaceship, and believe that he will not be blown to pieces in the coming space trip. According to industry experts estimate, Bezos aboard the new Shepard spacecraft encounter the risk of air crash is about 1 / 1000 Bezos will join three other crew members on an 11 minute space trip on July 20, which coincides with the 52nd anniversary of Apollo 11's lunar landing. The new Sheppard capsule, which is self piloting and can hold up to six passengers, will lift off from the launch pad in western Texas to an altitude of 62 miles (100 kilometers), which is usually regarded as the boundary of space < p > although Bezos' first manned flight aboard the new Shepard spacecraft is more risky than many other things that the world's richest man may do, in fact, this flight will be as dangerous as most other space launches < p > space flight is essentially a high-risk industry. Joseph Fragola, chief executive of Asti group, an integrated logistics service provider, said risk factors mainly include the experience level of the launch company, the number of launches carried out by a specific aircraft and the type of rocket engine used. Fragola is also an independent systems engineer and has been calculating risk for NASA for decades < p > it is reported that blue origin has conducted 15 unmanned tests on the new Shepard spacecraft, only one of which failed partially. The space capsule carrying passengers landed safely, but the rocket booster crashed. Fragola said that from these test results, the safety of the blue origin spacecraft is very high < p > Blake Putney, an electrical engineer, said that the new Shepard would only make a short trip to the edge of space, would not go into orbit, and would use relatively simple engines, which increased the level of confidence in the origin of blue. Patney also conducted risk analysis for NASA's aircraft < p > the be-3 engine used by the new Shepard generates about 110000 pounds (50000 kg) of thrust during takeoff. According to NASA, this is far lower than NASA's space shuttle booster, which generates a total of 1.2 million pounds (544000 kg) of thrust on the launch pad According to patney, the risk of space flight largely depends on "how powerful and complex your engine is, and how long it will fail.". The engine of the space shuttle is like a complex beast. It takes a long time to ignite to put the crew into orbit, which means that it may encounter more problems in the process of liftoff After the space shuttle Challenger crash in 1986, Fragola calculated that the highly complex space shuttle should fail once every 120 launches. Given that the project has carried out 135 missions in 30 years and suffered two tragedies during this period, this figure has proved to be quite accurate. The space shuttle Challenger disintegrated in 73 seconds, killing all seven crew members on board However, the two experts agreed that the probability of failure of most mature launch vehicles (i.e. they have flown several times and the engineering team has solved many problems) in flight should be about 1 / 1000. Although this is acceptable for adventurous astronauts, ordinary people may be hesitant about such a high risk. "Compared with airplanes, the risk of taking a spaceship is outrageous," Fragola said. The possibility of an American plane crash is close to one in a billion, or even one in a billion. " From the test experience of blue origin so far, Fragola estimated that the probability of rocket failure "will be between 1 / 100 and 1 / 500, and the best estimate is 1 / 200" However, as the new Shepard's capsule is far away from the engine, it has a chance to separate and escape in case of disaster, so he will increase his estimation of the actual safety of the crew. He said that based on similar systems, such termination procedures often have a success rate of about 80%, so the probability of Bezos and his companions encountering an air crash on the journey should be about 1 / 1000, or about the same as other astronauts in rocket flight According to the data of the National Security Council of the United States, objectively speaking, this is roughly the same as the risk of drowning in the life of the average American Patney would not give an exact success rate, but added that another big risk factor was the parachute system used by the spacecraft, which would be responsible for safely getting the crew to the ground. "If the wind is strong, and it's blowing sideways, the capsule could roll," he said < p > however, given the short flight time of the new Shepard and the fact that the operators will be able to predict the weather fairly accurately, patney said that blue origin should have a good grasp of when to launch to ensure the safety of the crew to the maximum extent. He believes that Bezos will be as likely to be in danger as Felix Baumgartner, an Austrian adventurer who broke the world record for Skydiving from 120000 feet in 2012 < p > Fragola compares the current era of manned space flight with the exploration of airliners in the 1930s. He said that before the Douglas DC-3 came into operation, the aviation industry was experiencing a failure rate similar to that of today's best rockets, but people still like to fly < p > he added: "what I want to say is that with the advent of the space shuttle, we are entering a new DC-3 era." So, if you can, is Fragola willing to join Bezos' space tour? He responded, "if someone pays, I'll go tomorrow!"（ Small) < / P > < p >

2023-03-22 10:04:38