Use wechat scan QR code to share with friends and circle of friends_ blank" href=" https://news.163.com/news/search?keyword=%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6 "> the change of automobile < / a > is a life and death challenge for automobile manufacturers, but it will not happen in a moment like pressing the light switch. < / P > < p > in the next 20 years, the drive systems in the global automotive market will be a hodgepodge, including battery powered, hydrogen powered, hybrid electric and fuel powered vehicles. < / P > < p > this is the conclusion of a comprehensive study on the electric vehicle market by KPMG, a market consulting company. The report, called place your billion dollar bets wisely, predicts that automakers are currently investing in the electric vehicle industry, which, given inflation, has exceeded NASA's cost of putting a man on the moon in the last century. By 2030, electric vehicles will account for 24% to 37% of the global automotive market share. < / P > < p > the fate of the automakers will depend on how executives work in < a target = "_ blank" href=" https://news.163.com/news/search?keyword=%E7%87%83%E6%B2%B9%E8%BD%A6 "> to find a balance between the decline of fuel vehicles and the rise of new energy vehicles. If the market share of electric vehicles reaches 30% in 2030, the entire automotive industry will have 40 million fuel vehicles with overcapacity, which is equivalent to 200 factories doing nothing. < / P > < p > the study said: "the risk can't be higher." "A new market dominance will be established and the old order may be disrupted." The shift to electric vehicles will lead to "huge structural changes" in the automotive industry, but there are no simple rules for success. < / P > < p > the problem is that if the scale of investment in the field of electric vehicles is too large and too early, traditional automobile manufacturers may lose the fuel vehicle market which maintains the source of profits. But the study also points out that lagging behind in the field of electric vehicles may mean that manufacturers who have been relying on fuel vehicles for a long time will come to a dead end. < / P > < p > Gary Silberg, global head of KPMG's automotive business and co-author of the study, said in an interview: "the risk of timing is great." "If you do something wrong in five years, you may go bankrupt." < / P > < p > in fact, Silberger and his co-authors predict that one or two of the world's top automobile manufacturers will not be able to cope with this change and will no longer exist in the next decade. < p >, Silberg said. "You may encounter some serious bankruptcies." < / P > < p > at present, too many automobile manufacturers are aiming at the electric vehicle market with the price of more than $50000, but the market volume is very small. General Motors has just launched an electric car with a price tag of more than $100000_ blank" href=" https://news.163.com/news/search?keyword=%E6%82%8D%E9%A9%AC "> Hummer < / a > SUV, and Hummer with a starting price of $80000 < a target ="_ blank" href=" https://news.163.com/news/search?keyword=%E7%9A%AE%E5%8D%A1 "> pickup < / a > complements. Rivian automotive, an electric car start-up, will launch an electric pickup and SUV this year, priced at $75000. But the problem is that cars worth more than $50000 account for only 17% of the U.S. market. "Too many manufacturers of electric vehicles are chasing a small number of consumers," Silberg said "It's going to be a major industry reshuffle." (Chenchen) < / P > < p >